Hot Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 300 pm Thursday August 15, 2019 Next Update: Tomorrow the 16th KEY POINTS... ● Significant heat across the lower elevations of southeastern Arizona Friday, although slightly cooler. ● An Excessive Heat Warning in effect Friday until 7 PM MST. There will be an elevated risk of heat related illness. ○ Minimize time outside and in the direct sunlight and remain hydrated. ○ Link to Heat Risk Map ● Another possible period of significant heat next Tuesday through Thursday. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING Increasing confidence of another period of hot to very hot weather next Tuesday through Thursday. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Tucson Metro, Southeast Pinal County, Upper Gila River Valley of Graham County Details: High confidence: ● Friday: High temperatures 105 to 110 degrees. High Heat Risk values. Moderate confidence in temperatures, low confidence in thunderstorms: ● Next Tue-Thu: High temperatures 105 to 111 degrees. High Heat Risk values. ● Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly south of Tucson. Possible increase in coverage by later next week. Low confidence. Western Pima County, South Central Pinal County, Tohono O’odham Nation Details: High confidence Friday, Moderate confidence next week: ● Friday: High temperatures 106 to 110 degrees. High Heat Risk Values ● Next Tue-Thu: High temperatures 109 to 113 degrees. High Heat Risk Values possible. ● Possible increase in coverage of thunderstorms by later next week.
See MoreHot Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 600 am Wednesday August 14, 2019 Next Update: None planned KEY POINTS... ● Significant heat is expected across the lower elevations of southeastern Arizona today through Friday with Thursday likely to be the hottest day for most areas. ● An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from 10 AM MST today through Friday 7 PM MST. There will be an elevated risk of heat related illness. ○ Minimize time outside and in the direct sunlight and remain hydrated. ○ Link to Heat Risk Map CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING The Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through Friday evening for areas west of Tucson. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Tucson Metro, Southeast Pinal County, Upper Gila River Valley of Graham County Details: High confidence: ● Wednesday: High temperatures 103 to 109 degrees. High Heat Risk values. High confidence in temperatures, low confidence in thunderstorms: ● Thursday: High temperatures 105 to 111 degrees. High Heat Risk values. ● Slight chance of thunderstorms mainly south of Tucson and across Graham County. Western Pima County, South Central Pinal County, Tohono O’odham Nation Details: High confidence: ● Wednesday: High temperatures 107 to 111 degrees. High Heat Risk values. ● Thursday: High temperatures 108 to 114 degrees. High Heat Risk Values ● Friday: High temperatures 106 to 110 degrees. High Heat Risk Values
See MoreHot Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 245 pm Monday August 12, 2019 Next Update: None planned KEY POINTS... ● Significant heat is expected across the lower elevations of southeastern Arizona Tuesday through Thursday with Thursday likely to be the hottest day for most areas. ● An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Wednesday 10 AM MST through Thursday 8PM MST. There will be an elevated risk of heat related illness. ○ Minimize time outside and in the direct sunlight and remain hydrated. ○ Link to Heat Risk Map CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING The Excessive Heat Watch Wednesday has been upgraded to a warning and now extends through Thursday evening. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Tucson Metro, Southeast Pinal County, Upper Gila River Valley of Graham County Details: High confidence: ● Tuesday: High temperatures 102 to 105 degrees. Moderate confidence: ● Wednesday: High temperatures 104 to 109 degrees. High Heat Risk values. Low confidence: ● Thursday: High temperatures 105 to 110 degrees. Slight chance of thunderstorms. If moisture return is delayed and there are no thunderstorms, high temperatures could be a degree or two higher than Wednesday. Western Pima County, South Central Pinal County, Tohono O’odham Nation Details: High confidence: ● Tuesday: High temperatures 105 to 108 degrees. Moderate confidence: ● Wednesday: High temperatures 106 to 110 degrees. High Heat Risk values. ● Thursday: High temperatures 107 to 112 degrees. High Heat Risk Values
See MoreHot Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 130 pm Sunday August 11, 2019 Next Update: Monday, August 12, 2019 KEY POINTS... ● Significant heat is expected across the lower elevations of southeastern Arizona Tuesday through Thursday with Wednesday likely to be the hottest day for most areas. ● Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for Wednesday. There may be an elevated risk of heat related illness. ○ Minimize time in the direct sunlight and remain hydrated. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING Initial Briefing. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Tucson Metro, Southeast Pinal County, Upper Gila River Valley of Graham County Details: High confidence: ● Tuesday: High temperatures 101 to 104 degrees. Moderate confidence: ● Wednesday: High temperatures 103 to 107 degrees. High Heat Risk values. Low confidence: ● Thursday: High temperatures 101 to 105 degrees. Slight chance of thunderstorms. If moisture return is delayed and there are no thunderstorms, high temperatures could be as hot as on Wednesday. Western Pima County, South Central Pinal County, Tohono O’odham Nation Details: High confidence: ● Tuesday: High temperatures 105 to 108 degrees. Moderate confidence: ● Wednesday: High temperatures 106 to 110 degrees. High Heat Risk values. ● Thursday: High temperatures 105 to 109 degrees.
See MoreJust a reminder that today and tomorrow we are expected to not have phones or internet at the office.
Pea size hail in Rio Rico right now
Please be advised that due to internet work being done at our office on Monday and Tuesday next week (August 5th and 6th) we will not be able to process or complete any Flood Hazard Information Sheets, Floodplain Use Permits, or Site Reviews during the two days. We will be able to take them in, and issue any that were completed before the upgrades start. We apologize for the inconvienence and hope that these upgrades will result in better connectivity and faster service in the near future. Thank you for your patience and understanding.
Hot Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 11:00 am Friday, August 2, 2019 Next Update: Saturday August 3, 2019 KEY POINTS... ● With many area schools starting next week, there may be an elevated risk of heat related illness for children due to an increase in temperature and relative humidity. To reduce impacts for children: ■ Minimize time in the direct sunlight during dropoff and pick-up times ■ Monitor activity during physical activity (e.g., recess) ■ Make sure children drink plenty of fluids and remain hydrated ■ Apply sunscreen before heading to school ● Increased risk for localized flash flooding this afternoon and evening, mainly south and east of Tucson, due to locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING Updated with information on how to minimize heat impacts to children heading back to school early next week. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Southeast Arizona Details: High confidence: ● Today: High temperatures 102 to 106 degrees in western Pima County, Tohono O’odham Nation and southeast Pinal County.. ● Saturday through Monday: High temperatures 104 to 108 degrees in western Pima County, Tohono O’odham Nation and southeast Pinal County. ● Saturday through Monday: High temperatures 102 to 106 degrees Tucson Metro Area and Upper Gila River Valley including Safford. Moderate confidence: ● Intense heavy rainfall due to isolated/scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening today through Monday favoring the mountains and areas south and east of Tucson.
See MoreHot Temperatures and Thunderstorm Chances National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 230 pm Thursday August 1, 2019 Next Update: Friday August 2, 2019 KEY POINTS... ● Significant heat is expected across the lower elevations of southeastern Arizona Friday through Monday. ● Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected each day, especially south and east of Tucson. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING Initial Briefing. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Southeast Arizona Details: High confidence: Friday: High temperatures 102 to 106 degrees in western Pima County, Tohono O’odham Nation and southeast Pinal County. Saturday through Monday: High temperatures 104 to 108 degrees in western Pima County, Tohono O’odham Nation and southeast Pinal County. Saturday through Monday: High temperatures 102 to 106 degrees Tucson Metro Area and Upper Gila River Valley including Safford. Moderate confidence: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Friday through Monday favoring mountains and areas south and east of Tucson. Pockets of heavy rain and gusty winds.
See MoreIncreasing Thunderstorms National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 5:30am Tuesday, July 30, 2019 Next Update: None planned unless conditions change KEY POINTS... ● Flash Flood Watch is in effect for a large part of the area (please see graphic). ● Showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon well into the evening. ● Due to abundant moisture, stronger storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. ● Potential for gusty winds also exists with local blowing dust west of Tucson. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING The primary change is the addition of a Flash Flood Watch from 2 pm this afternoon until 1 am late tonight. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Location 1 - Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz Counties and the Tohono O’odham Nation Details: Moderate Confidence Clouds are expected to dissipate this morning with thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon. Due to the abundant moisture and instability available, any strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time. This is especially the case with storms slowed by terrain or colliding outflow boundaries, or storms occurring over areas that recently received heavy rains. Rainfall of this intensity could result in rapid, fast rising flows in area washes and/or across low water crossings. Strong outflow winds are also possible with the strongest storms which may lead to local blowing dust issues west of Tucson where rain has not recently occurred. Heavy rainfall producing thunderstorms will likely continue well into the evening hours which unfortunately makes seeing water running across low water crossings more difficult. Location 2 - Cochise, Graham and Greenlee Cruz Counties Details: Moderate Confidence Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again today and they will continue into the evening hours. The primary threats with these storms will be strong gusty outflow winds and local areas of heavy rain, especially western Cochise county where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Most of this area is outside of the Flash Flood Watch area because of the lower amount of moisture the storms have available to work with. That said, it is possible for an isolated storm to produce enough rain to cause flooding problems, so it can’t be entirely ruled out.
See MoreIncreasing Thunderstorms National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 2:30pm Monday, July 29, 2019 Next Update: None planned unless conditions change KEY POINTS... ● Thunderstorm chances increase today, continuing through Wednesday across much of southeast Arizona. ● Showers and thunderstorms likely remain active overnight tonight and Tuesday night. ● Due to abundant moisture, the stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time. ● Potential for gusty winds and blowing dust also exists. ● High temperatures decrease to near or below normal Tuesday through Thursday. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING We are still expecting an active three days of weather and minimal changes were made to the previous briefing. The primary change was to stress the likelihood of overnight showers and thunderstorms. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Location 1 - Pima, Pinal Counties and the Tohono O’odham Nation Details: Moderate Confidence Widespread thunderstorms develop today, continuing through Wednesday. Although the afternoon and evening time frame will experience the majority of thunderstorm activity, plentiful moisture allows precipitation chances to remain into the overnight hours. Blowing dust will be possible around the stronger storms, especially up the I-10 corridor and across central/western Pima County. While storms should move at a good pace relative to this time of year, precipitation amounts may still exceed 1” in isolated downpours of heavy rainfall. The main forecast challenge relates to the possibility of thick morning cloud cover on Tuesday and Wednesday. Without sufficient daytime heating, thunderstorms will generally struggle to organize. Location 2 - Cochise, Graham, Greenlee and Santa Cruz Counties Details: Moderate Confidence Widespread thunderstorms develop today, continuing through Wednesday. Although the afternoon and evening time frame will experience the majority of thunderstorm activity, plentiful moisture allows precipitation chances to remain into the overnight hours. While storms should move at a good pace relative to this time of year, precipitation amounts may still exceed 1” in isolated downpours of heavy rainfall. The main forecast challenge relates to the possibility of thick morning cloud cover on Tuesday and Wednesday. Without sufficient daytime heating, thunderstorms will generally struggle to organize.
See MoreIncreasing Thunderstorms National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 2pm Sunday, July 28, 2019 Next Update: 2pm Monday, July 29, 2019 KEY POINTS... ● Thunderstorm chances increase Monday through Wednesday across much of southeast Arizona. ● Due to abundant moisture, the stronger storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time. ● Potential for gusty winds and blowing dust also exists, particularly on Monday. ● High temperatures decrease to near or below normal Tuesday through Thursday. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING First Briefing. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Location 1 - Pima, Pinal Counties and the Tohono O’odham Nation Details: Moderate Confidence Widespread thunderstorms develop Monday, continuing through Wednesday. Although the afternoon and evening time frame will experience the majority of thunderstorm activity, plentiful moisture allows precipitation chances to remain into the overnight hours. Blowing dust will be possible around the stronger storms, and the most favorable conditions exist on Monday. While storms should move at a good pace relative to this time of year, precipitation amounts may still exceed 1” in isolated downpours of heavy rainfall. The main forecast challenge relates to the possibility of thick morning cloud cover on Tuesday and Wednesday. Without sufficient daytime heating, thunderstorms will generally struggle to organize. Location 2 - Cochise, Graham, Greenlee and Santa Cruz Counties Details: Moderate Confidence Widespread thunderstorms develop Monday, continuing through Wednesday. Although the afternoon and evening time frame will experience the majority of thunderstorm activity, plentiful moisture allows precipitation chances to remain into the overnight hours. While storms should move at a good pace relative to this time of year, precipitation amounts may still exceed 1” in isolated downpours of heavy rainfall. The main forecast challenge relates to the possibility of thick morning cloud cover on Tuesday and Wednesday. Without sufficient daytime heating, thunderstorms will generally struggle to organize.
See MoreWidespread Thunderstorms to Start the Week National Weather Service - Tucson, AZ Issued: 1:00 pm, July 23, 2019 Next Update: None Scheduled KEY POINTS... ● High probability of thunderstorm activity across much of south east/south central Arizona this afternoon and evening. ● Storms will be capable of local heavy rains and strong winds. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS BRIEFING A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Pima, Santa Cruz, southeast Pinal and far western Cochise Counties this afternoon through this evening. CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS Pima, Santa Cruz, SE Pinal and far western Cochise Counties Details: Moderate Confidence Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this afternoon and continue into this evening. The storms will be fairly slow movers and will have abundant atmospheric moisture to tap into which is expected to result in local heavy rainfall and possibly flash flooding. The threat will be enhanced if one of these storms impacts areas that received heavy rainfall Sunday and/or Monday. The storms are expected to continue well into the evening hours. Graham, Greenlee and eastern/central Cochise Counties Details: Moderate Confidence Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be less numerous in this area and it was relatively spared widespread heavy rains the previous two days. In addition to that, the atmosphere in this region is a little drier which will make the storms less efficient at producing heavy rainfall. SUMMARY Abundant moisture and instability will bring about showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the stronger storms will produce heavy rains that could lead to local flash flooding. The threat is even higher in locations that received heavy rain the last couple of days, and those generally fall within the watch area.
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